यह भी देखें
30.01.2026 07:24 PMThe GBP/USD pair also continues a strong upward movement. Unfortunately, unlike the EUR/USD pair, no buy signal was formed before the start of the move, so traders had no opportunity to open new positions using the "Smart Money" system. However, the pound has an excellent chance to form a new buy signal as early as today, unlike the euro. These two signals—on the euro and the pound—could complement each other perfectly. I believe that the price reaction to imbalance 15 on the pound may lead to growth in both the euro and the pound. Thus, the euro signal announced the beginning of a new bullish offensive, while the pound signal may announce its continuation.
The FOMC meeting is now behind us and provided no support to the US dollar. In my view, the Federal Reserve made no important decisions, and Jerome Powell did not say anything significant. Therefore, the traders' inactivity on Wednesday and Thursday was natural. There was also almost no news on Friday, but within the next 48 hours the US may launch an airstrike on Iran, as announced by Donald Trump. Tehran refused Trump's proposal for a non-nuclear deal, stating that "it violates the country's independence." According to some sources, negotiations are ongoing, but it is unclear to me what the parties are negotiating about if each side has stood its ground for more than a year. What is the probability that the US will abandon its desire to disarm Iran, or that Iran will abandon its nuclear program, if the sword is already hanging over Iran's head?
Since the bullish trend in the euro remains intact, in my opinion the bullish trend in the pound also remains intact. I cannot imagine a bullish trend in the euro while simultaneously having a bearish trend in the pound. This week, imbalances 14 and 15 were formed, which will allow traders to open new buy positions in the future. A reaction to imbalance 15 may occur as early as today. In my view, the chart picture remains unambiguous.
The information background on Friday was absent for both the pound and the dollar. Today, the currency market will close for the weekend, but the White House will not. Trump may give the order to strike Iran at any moment, which would trigger a surge of emotions in the market—but already on Monday. Therefore, this is definitely not the time to relax.
In the US, the overall information backdrop remains such that nothing other than a long-term decline of the dollar can be expected. The situation in the US remains quite difficult. The government shutdown lasted a month and a half, and Democrats and Republicans agreed on funding only until the end of January, which ends on Saturday. US labor market data continues to disappoint or be ignored by the market. The last three FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions, and recent data suggests that the pause in monetary easing will be short-lived. Trump's military aggression, threats against Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, EU countries, Canada, and South Korea, the initiation of criminal proceedings against Jerome Powell, and the threat of a new shutdown all perfectly complement the current picture of an "American crisis." In my view, the bulls have everything they need to continue their offensive throughout 2026 (with pauses, of course).
A bearish trend would require a strong and stable positive news background for the dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the US president himself does not need a strong dollar, as the trade balance would remain in deficit. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, despite the rather strong decline in September and October. Too many risk factors continue to weigh heavily on the dollar. What will bears use to push the pound lower? If new bearish patterns appear, a potential decline in the pound sterling can be reconsidered, but at the moment there are none.
News calendar for the US and the UK:
On February 2, the economic calendar contains three events, with the US ISM index standing out. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will only be present in the second half of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
The picture for the pound remains clear; only new buy signals are missing. Bulls have moved into a new offensive that threatens to become long and powerful.
Since the bullish trend is undeniable, traders can only trade to the upside using clear patterns and signals. In the near future, traders may expect the formation of a new bullish signal within imbalance 15. As a potential upward target, I considered the 1.3725 level; this level has been reached, but the pound may rise much higher in 2026—especially considering the events of the first month of the year. If bearish patterns form, sell trades are also possible, but within a bullish trend, I am a supporter of buying rather than selling.
