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18.06.2026 08:35 AMThe price test at 160.33 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point to buy dollars. As a result, the pair rose to around 160.71.
Yesterday, the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled a sharp shift towards a more aggressive monetary policy to combat inflation, leading to a significant decline in the yen and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. While rates were left unchanged, the tone of the Fed's representatives indicated a readiness for more aggressive rate hikes in the near future. The rapid strengthening of the U.S. dollar pressured many global currencies, and the Japanese yen was no exception. The USD/JPY pair demonstrated substantial growth, surpassing the mark of 160 yen per dollar, which is the highest level seen in several months. Meanwhile, the number of new buyers is declining, as intervention by the Japanese central bank cannot be ruled out. Currency interventions at this level have become common recently, so caution is advised when building up long positions.
The pair's further dynamics will largely depend on how the situation in the Middle East develops and whether a peace agreement is signed.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 160.78 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 161.18 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 161.18, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 160.55 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 160.78 and 161.18.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the price breaks below 160.55 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 160.18, where I intend to exit the shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Sellers could return at any moment; any hint from the central bank would suffice. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 160.78 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 160.55 and 160.18.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
