02.10.2026 11:07 AMOn the hourly chart, GBP/USD declined to the 1.3164–1.3177 support level on Thursday, rebounded from it, and reversed in favor of the pound. Therefore, some upward movement toward the 100.0% corrective level at 1.3272 may be observed today. Consolidation below the 1.3164–1.3177 level would favor a continuation of the decline toward the next retracement level of 161.8% at 1.3025.
The market situation remains "bearish." The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the new downward wave (which is still forming) broke the previous low. Thus, bears continue to control the initiative. FOMC monetary policy tightening and the "hawkish" outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh sharply strengthened the dollar's position. A break in the current trend is now possible only above 1.3567 or after the formation of two "bullish" waves.
The news background on Thursday did not allow the bears to continue their attacks, but the weak ISM manufacturing index in the United States only encouraged them. The wave of US dollar buying continued throughout the previous day, causing the pound to fall to its yearly lows. Today, the bulls will be hoping for weak Nonfarm Payrolls and the US unemployment rate figures; however, it is entirely possible that both indicators will show high readings. For the bears to stop their attacks and take a pause, neither of the labor market reports needs to show figures significantly above traders' expectations. However strong the bears may be, they cannot continue attacking constantly, without a break and against the same news background. The lower GBP/USD falls and the higher the pound climbs, the more difficult it becomes for the market to maintain the current momentum. Therefore, only very strong US labor market data could lead to a new decline below the 1.3164–1.3177 level today.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD returned to the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3277 and rebounded from it once again. Therefore, the pound's decline may continue toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3159. A rebound from this level would allow the pound to recover somewhat, but the hourly chart shows a support level above 1.3159 that could also stop the bears' attacks. The CCI indicator is showing signs of another "bullish" divergence.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became even more "bearish" over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 14,876, while the number of Short positions increased by 8,977. The current gap between Long and Short positions is effectively 54,000 versus 137,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are increasing again. Previously, the bears' dominance was not in question, but it is now, as the news background has changed in recent months.
The "bearish" trend in the pound is still not considered convincing, but in the near term everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed without really getting started. There is also no guarantee that they will resume in the near future.
News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
On October 2, the economic calendar contains three entries, at least two of which are very important. The economic news background will influence market sentiment in the second half of the day on Friday.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling the pair is possible today if it consolidates below the 1.3164–1.3177 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3025. Buying is possible today if the pair rebounds from the 1.3164–1.3177 level, with a target of 1.3272.
The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3272–1.3674 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
