Trade Review and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3359 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by 25 points.

In the second half of the day, very important data are expected on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the CPI excluding food and energy prices. Weekly U.S. initial jobless claims data are unlikely to attract much interest. Higher-than-expected CPI readings could spark concerns about persistent inflationary pressure in the United States, which in turn may push the Federal Reserve to be more cautious about cutting interest rates next year. On the other hand, weaker-than-expected data could ease inflation concerns, leading to a renewed decline in the U.S. dollar against the pound. As for the initial jobless claims report, an increase in claims may indicate a weakening labor market, which could also affect the U.S. dollar in the short term.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching an entry point around 1.3365 (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward the 1.3420 level (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3420, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from that level). A rise in the pound today can be expected only after weak U.S. inflation data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3339 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3365 and 1.3420 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after an update (break) of the 1.3339 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3290 level, where I will exit short positions and also open buy positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3365 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3339 and 1.3290 can be expected.

What You See on the Chart

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.