Trade Analysis for Tuesday:

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair traded exclusively sideways on Tuesday with minimal volatility. Nothing interesting happened in the US, the UK, or the Middle East during the day. In the US, a report on existing home sales and the weekly ADP report were published. As we warned, the market did not even notice these publications. As a result, we saw no movements during the day. Today the US inflation report will be published, which will stir the market a bit. We believe the British pound should continue to rise in any case, since the probability of Federal Reserve monetary tightening in September is currently minimal, and geopolitics no longer supports the US dollar. However, today the direction of movement will depend on US inflation. If the July reading is below forecasts, the chances of a Fed rate hike in September will be zero.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, not a single trading signal was formed, as the pair moved exclusively sideways all day with low volatility. There were no grounds for opening trades for novice traders yesterday.

How to Trade on Wednesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair maintains an upward trend. In our view, the pound sterling will continue to rise even if local factors do not support it. On the weekly timeframe, movement from the lower boundary of the sideways channel toward the upper boundary continues. This movement is not complete. Market belief in a Fed rate hike in September is evaporating before our eyes; the market no longer pays attention to geopolitics, and technicals support the rise of the British pound.

On Wednesday, novice traders may open short positions if consolidation occurs below the 1.3456–1.3476 area, targeting 1.3380–1.3386. Long positions opened on Monday can be left open with a target of 1.3587–1.3598.

On the 5-minute timeframe, you can now trade at the levels 1.3175–1.3180, 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3380–1.3386, 1.3456–1.3476, 1.3587–1.3598, 1.3631–1.3641, and 1.3695. No important events are scheduled in the UK again on Wednesday, while in the US, the inflation report the market has been waiting for since Monday will be released today.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is assessed based on the time it took to form (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can generate a plethora of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend.
5. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area.
6. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.

Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.