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15.09.2026 05:14 AM
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward move on Monday, following a trend that began last week under contentious circumstances. Recall that on Thursday, the European Central Bank raised three key rates for the second time this year. On Friday, the US inflation report showed inflation unchanged at 3.4%. Thus neither event provided grounds for US dollar strength. However, as the Federal Reserve meeting approaches, traders are increasingly betting on monetary tightening. On these expectations, the US currency has continued to rise for the fourth consecutive day. If the market is truly front-running the Fed meeting now, then the dollar's rise should end on Wednesday evening. Yet we again get the sense that the Fed meeting is merely an excuse. On the daily and weekly timeframes, EUR/USD remains within a sideways correction with a small downward tilt, and the market does not yet appear ready for a new leg of the uptrend. Therefore the dollar is gaining not because of monetary-policy fundamentals — since the ECB has been more hawkish in 2026 — but on formal grounds.
Technically, the pair continues forming a new downtrend. The market once again ignored the ECB's "hawkish" decision and is pricing in an as-yet unmade "hawkish" Fed decision. In the short term, the dollar's prospects look more attractive than the euro's. But only in the short term.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, three not-very-good trading signals were formed. The signals were generated when the downward move had, in essence, already ended. Nevertheless, the 1.1536–1.1542 area remains relevant, so new signals may form around it today.
The latest COT report is dated September 8. On the weekly timeframe illustration, it is clear that non-commercial traders' net position turned "bearish" and has fallen significantly in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Traders have been shedding euros in favor of the US dollar over the past six months. Donald Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar has acted, for a time, as a "reserve currency."
However, we still do not see any fundamental factors for further strengthening of the US currency. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but when that factor's "shelf life" expires, everything will return to normal. And that shelf life may already have expired. In the long term, the euro could fall as low as $1.08 (trend line), but the uptrend will remain relevant. During the recent months of dollar strength, the pair has not approached that line closely.
The placement of the red and blue indicator lines indicates an approximate parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, longs in the "Non-commercial" group fell by 5,000, while shorts rose by 12,700. Accordingly, the net position for the week fell by 17,700 contracts in a week.
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has reversed down and begun a new downward trend. The ECB should have supported the euro by raising rates for the second time in 2026, but the market now sees only the Fed and its policy tightening. Thus, the dollar can form a new trend out of thin air, and market sentiment and its view of the dollar may change only on Wednesday evening.
For September 15 we highlight the following trading levels — 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1665, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830–1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1613) and the Kijun?sen (1.1589). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Remember to move the Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. This will protect against possible losses if the signal proves false.
On Tuesday, the euro-area and German ZEW economic-sentiment indices will be published, which are unlikely to interest traders in the current circumstances. In the U.S., the much less significant weekly ADP report will be released. There are no grounds for strong moves today, but the market may continue to buy the U.S. currency.
Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.1461–1.1473 if price consolidates below 1.1536–1.1542. A bounce from the 1.1536–1.1542 area will allow you to open long positions targeting 1.1585 and 1.1613. Volatility may again be relatively weak today.
Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.
