US President Donald Trump has directed his administration to devise a plan for a prolonged pressure campaign on Iran’s economy, shifting the focus from direct military intervention to long-term economic suffocation. According to US officials, the new strategy aims for a radical reduction in Iranian oil exports and strict limitations on port shipping. Washington views the transition to a thorough blockade as the optimal pressure tactic, given that resuming extensive bombing carries unacceptable geopolitical risks, and the prospects for a swift diplomatic resolution remain elusive following the April ceasefire.

The escalation of tensions is linked to the US administration’s rejection of a three-phase de-escalation plan proposed by Tehran. The Iranian initiative called for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a postponement of nuclear negotiations. However, Washington deemed these concessions insufficient and categorically refused to soften its key demand—a twenty-year moratorium on uranium enrichment accompanied by indefinite international oversight. Experts warn that such uncompromising stances could lead the conflict into a protracted phase with no clear prospects for a peace agreement.

News of the impending long-term blockade immediately impacted the global energy market, where a sharp supply shortage has already developed due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Market prices surged dramatically: Brent crude futures rose by 2.9%, reaching $114.46 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate surged to $102.79. Maintaining the status quo is expected to keep global hydrocarbon prices at abnormally high levels in the medium term.